Biden-Trump Rematch? Not So Fast ...
The first caucus is complete. And the first primary isn’t until tomorrow. Yet too many national media narratives suggest the general election lineup already is set: Grudge Match II. President Biden vs former President Trump. Lock it in.
Maybe it is. Even though Democrats wring their hands over Biden’s re-electability, no credible candidate has mounted a primary challenge. And even though Trump makes as many courtroom as campaign appearances these days, he still collected 51% of Iowa caucus votes – a record for a non-incumbent.
On to November?
Not so fast, as a certain football coach-turned-ESPN analyst might say.
Biden and Trump may be in the proverbial driver’s seats … but it’s only the beginning of the fourth week of January – a political lifetime before the two nominating conventions July 15-18 for Republicans in Milwaukee and Aug. 19-22 for Democrats in Chicago.
Like all presidents seeking re-election, Biden is undoubtedly aware potential election-altering crises abound, at home and abroad. Trump, meanwhile, faces 91 criminal charges involving his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and his handling of classified documents.
With more than enough potential landmines to alter the course of history, it’s best not to read too much into Iowa’s caucus results. Maybe even into Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary returns – though Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ sudden exit from the GOP race was potentially seismic.
The reality is, Iowa and New Hampshire recently have been hit-and-miss when it comes to projecting the major party nominees.
Not including this year, six of Iowa’s 11 caucuses since 1980 were captured by the eventual GOP nominee and seven by the eventual Democratic nominee [though four of the Republican winners and three of the Democrats were incumbent presidents with only token opposition, if any].
In New Hampshire, nine of 11 primary winners [including three incumbents] became the Republican nominee and six [also including three incumbents] became the Democratic standard-bearer.
Iowa’s recent record is especially spotty. Consider its last three winners when an incumbent was not involved: For Republicans, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in 2012, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008. For Democrats, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2020 and 2016 and former New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in 2008.
It's also notable that only about 15% of Iowa’s 752,000 registered Republicans caucused last week – about half the normal turnout, undoubtedly reflecting the brutal cold weather. Of that turnout, Trump only garnered about 55,000 votes. Enough to cement the GOP nomination?
Hardly. Iowa is no bellwether, even though it enjoyed outsize influence as the nation’s first presidential primary battle for four decades [Democrats this year shifted their first official contest to South Carolina on Feb. 3; New Hampshire voters on Tuesday won’t even find Biden on the ballot because the outcome will not determine national convention delegates].
There’s really no mystery why. Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire reflects the overall American electorate.
Just look at the demographics: Iowa’s population is nearly 90% white, New Hampshire’s almost 93%. That makes Oklahoma look positively diverse by comparison – 73% white, 12% Hispanic, nearly 10% Native and almost 8% Black.
Adding to GOP angst about its top challenger to a seemingly vulnerable Democratic incumbent is polling that suggests Trump’s support, while hard-core, may not be enough to win in November.
A Des Moines Register poll, for example, found one in four caucus goers said they would not vote for Trump in the general election – period. In New Hampshire, 30% in entrance polls expressed the belief Trump would not be fit to be president if he is convicted in one of his pending criminal trials.
Those numbers indicate the presidential race is far from settled, especially after DeSantis dropped out.
Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is closing the gap on Trump, according to polls. But even if she pulls the upset in New Hampshire, it doesn’t really tell us much about the state of the Republican nominating process since Granite State results could be skewed by independents who are allowed to participate in the GOP primary.
Trump clearly considers Haley a threat. Even before DeSantis’ exit, the former president’s attack ads zeroed in on Haley. But what really could alter the race fast is Trump’s recent stumbling and bumbling in public appearances.
Friday in New Hampshire, for example, he appeared to confuse Haley for former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, claiming Haley failed to “provide adequate security during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack at the Capitol and connecting her to the House committee that investigated it,” according to the New York Times.
Haley, of course, never served in Congress. And she was working in the private sector on insurrection day.
Yet Trump declared, “Nikki Haley was in charge of security. We offered her 10,000 people, soldiers, National Guards, whatever they want. They turned it down. They don’t want to talk about that.”
Polls suggest the leading candidates’ ages – Biden is 81, Trump 77 – are a concern to many votes. [For the record: Haley is 52.] Trump repeatedly has depicted Biden as mentally unfit, charging, “He can’t put two sentences together … He needs a teleprompter.”
A Biden-Trump rematch as a fait accompli? Maybe … but don’t bet the house on it.