Impeachment Is Going To Hurt Them Worse Than It Does You

So, Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced the House of Representatives would launch an investigation into impeaching President Joe Biden in connection with Biden’s son Hunter’s foreign business dealings.

Predictably, Biden’s spokesperson and elected Democrats were publicly outraged. They had little choice in the matter; even if there’s nothing there, the accused and their supporters can’t just sit quietly or make a vague endorsement of the wisdom of the justice system.

I don’t see much of a chance McCarthy will round up either the evidence or the votes to impeach Biden and I see no chance the Senate will convict him. And that’s one reason I think Democrats as a whole can be sanguine or even happy about the impeachment track. Here are some others.

First, Democrats will rally around the flag [or the lovable old guy, in this case]. It is no secret that Biden badly needs the boost. Two-thirds of Democrats would prefer he not run for re-election. Or at least they say that privately.

Like most observers of politics, I expect the majority will come around as it becomes more certain that he will be the Democratic nominee and that his opponent will be, shall we say, the person they likely hate most in the world.

Impeachment will just speed up that reluctant shift. Many isn’t-there-someone-else? Democrats will be offended by the lengths to which House Republicans will go to make a case against Biden based on what so far looks like innuendo, whispers from unreliable sources, and pure, unadulterated hope. Should the House actually send articles of impeachment to the Senate, Democrats will delight in watching Republican senators, particularly Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, walk on a razor wire between truth on one side and party loyalty and crude political calculation on the others. [By the way, don’t expect Oklahoma’s senatorial toadies to face this dilemma. They likely registered their guilty-on-anything-they-dig-up votes with McConnell before I sat down to write this.]

Second, it won’t just be Democrats who change their mind. Bill Clinton and Donald Trump both reached their highest approval ratings, both overall and among independents and the opposite party, during and at the end of their impeachment and trials. If the same happens for Biden, he’ll breeze to re-election.

Third, it might not only be Biden who gains. Among Democrats who support or are at least resigned to Biden, the investigation will unleash a flow of outrage and an even more important flow of money to the president’s campaign, just as indictments have done for Trump. Besides having Trump on the ballot, money is all Biden needs to be re-elected.

The contribution bonanza won’t be limited to Biden either. Impeachment could well have the unintended [though deserved] effect of improving Democrats’ congressional election prospects come next November.

Fourth and finally, McCarthy almost certainly agreed to take on the role of Ringmaster of the Impeachment Circus only to appease his incorrigible far-right gadflies. Just as certainly, he’s gotten a commitment from them to play nice [by their low standards] in a continuing resolution that keeps the government open after Sept. 30 and potentially to back down from some of their absurd budget demands when they get around to funding the government for the rest of the budget year.

If impeachment doesn’t bring joy to Democrats, humbling nutcase Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, and Jim Jordan should do the trick.

So, Democrats, take a deep breath and try to enjoy the show. It will be good for you. Really!